Monte Carlo Simulator
See the range of possible outcomes for your strategy. Visualize best-case, worst-case, and median equity curves.
Free — no signup, no ads, instant results
Inputs
Results
Median Final Balance
$34,834
Worst Case (5th %ile)
$21,655
Best Case (95th %ile)
$56,036
Median Max Drawdown
9.7%
Probability of Profit
100.0%
Probability of Ruin (<50%)
0.0%
Equity Fan Chart
What Is Monte Carlo Simulation?
Monte Carlo simulation runs your trading statistics through hundreds of randomized scenarios to show the full range of possible outcomes. Even with the same win rate and risk:reward, the sequence of wins and losses creates dramatically different equity curves.
The fan chart shows percentile bands: the dark inner region is where 50% of outcomes fall (25th-75th percentile), and the lighter outer region covers 90% of outcomes (5th-95th). The purple median line shows the typical path.
This matters because backtesting only shows one historical sequence. Monte Carlo analysis reveals whether your strategy is robust across many possible orderings of the same trades, helping you prepare for drawdowns that haven't happened yet.
Read more about surviving losing streaks and use the Risk of Ruin Calculator to calculate your exact probability of account failure.
Who Is This For?
Traders who want to stress-test their strategy by simulating thousands of random trade sequences. Shows the range of possible outcomes — best case, worst case, and median — based on your actual trading statistics.
New to Monte Carlo simulation? Read our guide: Monte Carlo Simulator for Trading: How It Works & When to Use One →
Worked Example
Win rate 55%, avg win $200, avg loss $100, 500 trades, $10,000 starting balance.
After 1,000 simulations: median outcome ~$35,000, worst case ~$5,000, best case ~$80,000. Probability of ruin (hitting $0): 0.2%.
Assumptions & Edge Cases
- Assumes trades are independent (no autocorrelation).
- Uses fixed win rate and average win/loss — real markets may have regime changes.
- Does not model position sizing changes during drawdowns.
Frequently Asked Questions
It runs thousands of randomized simulations of your strategy's trades to show the range of possible outcomes — from best case to worst case — helping you understand the role of luck vs. edge.
At least 1,000 simulations for reliable results. More simulations produce smoother probability distributions but take longer to compute.
A 95% confidence interval means that 95% of all simulated outcomes fell within that range. The wider the interval, the more uncertain your strategy's future results.