Risk of Ruin Calculator
Calculate the probability of blowing your account based on your win rate, risk:reward, and position sizing.
Inputs
Results
Risk of Ruin
0.0%
Expected Value / Trade
+0.650R
Max Consecutive Losses
34
Analytical Estimate
0.0%
Risk Gauge
Risk by Position Size
How position sizing affects your probability of ruin (based on 10,000 simulations each).
| Risk/Trade | Risk of Ruin | Level |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% | 0.0% | Low Risk |
| 1% | 0.0% | Low Risk |
| 2% | 0.0% | Low Risk |
| 3% | 0.0% | Low Risk |
| 5% | 0.0% | Low Risk |
What Is Risk of Ruin?
Risk of ruin is the probability that your trading account will decline to a level where you can no longer trade effectively. Even strategies with a positive expected value can blow up if position sizing is too aggressive.
The key insight: your win rate alone doesn't determine survival. A 60% win rate with 5% risk per trade can still have a significant chance of ruin, while a 45% win rate with proper position sizing and good risk:reward can be nearly indestructible.
This calculator uses 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations alongside the analytical formula to give you the most accurate estimate. The position size comparison table shows exactly how reducing risk per trade dramatically improves your odds of survival.
Learn more about surviving losing streaks and how risk:reward ratio works.