Backtesting Calculator
Simulate your strategy's equity curve and see if your edge holds up over time.
Free — no signup, no ads, instant results
Final Balance
$18,905.72
Total Return
+89.06%
Max Drawdown
3.94%
Profit Factor
2.42
Total Wins
55
Total Losses
45
Max Win Streak
5
Max Loss Streak
4
Largest Win
$370.70
Largest Loss
$185.41
Equity Curve
Who Is This For?
Traders who want to quickly visualize how their strategy performs over time without the complexity of Monte Carlo — great for validating whether your edge is large enough before risking real capital.
The Formula
Per Trade: Win → Balance += Risk x R:R | Loss → Balance -= Risk
Max Drawdown = Max((Peak - Trough) / Peak)
How to Use This Calculator
- Step 1: Enter your starting balance and the number of trades to simulate
- Step 2: Set your win rate, risk per trade (%), and reward:risk ratio
- Step 3: Review the results — final balance, max drawdown, profit factor, and streaks
- Step 4: Click "Re-randomize" to see how different trade orderings affect the equity curve
Worked Example
Scenario: 55% win rate, 2:1 R:R, 1% risk per trade, 100 trades starting with $10,000.
Result: Expected final balance is approximately $12,800. Max drawdown typically falls between 8-15% depending on trade order.
Click "Re-randomize" multiple times to see the range of possible drawdowns with the same edge.
Backtesting vs Monte Carlo
This calculator runs a single simulation to give you a quick feel for how your strategy performs. For a full risk assessment — including worst-case drawdown percentiles and ruin probability — use the Monte Carlo Equity Simulator, which runs thousands of randomized paths through the same parameters.
Assumptions & Edge Cases
- Assumes fixed risk percentage per trade
- Does not account for slippage, commissions, or compounding effects beyond the risk %
- Trade order significantly impacts drawdown — use Re-randomize to see different scenarios
Frequently Asked Questions
Backtesting simulates how a trading strategy would have performed based on its statistical parameters (win rate, risk/reward) over a number of trades.
No. This runs a single equity curve. Monte Carlo runs thousands of simulations to show the range of possible outcomes. Use this for quick intuition, Monte Carlo for risk analysis.
It depends on your reward:risk ratio. With 2:1 R:R, you only need ~34% to break even. With 1:1, you need above 50%. Use the Breakeven Win Rate Calculator for exact numbers.
Because the order of wins and losses matters. A losing streak early vs. late produces different drawdowns even with identical overall stats.